Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Predict Bidding War Situations. The New Fire Symbol!


With all the bidding wars going on, wouldn't it be nice to know when a listing might be more likely to have a bidding war situation?

See an example with a search in Arlington Virginia homes for sale.

Well now, we will show a    symbol when there is a listing that meets the following criteria

1) The homes is under 7 Days On Market
2) The listing agent has a selling track record of getting the seller over 100% of list price on at least HALF of their listings... that sell in 7 days.

The #2 is a little tricky, so I will explain it another way. The flame is just looking at the agent's track record when their listings sell in under 7 days. So they might have 100 listings and only 3 sell in under 7 days. Meaning only a 3% chance of a bidding war. And if 2 of those 3 (over 50%) sell for over list, there WILL be a flame symbol.

So the flame represents IF (a big IF) this home were to sell in under 7 days, it has over a 50% chance of selling for over list price based on the agent's track record.

I am open to suggestions for adjusting this metric, but for now I kept it simple. 

What do you think? Leave your comments.
Also the FPP (Frankly Price Predictor) will have an adjustment shortly for homes likely to go over list.

Frank

8 comments:

  1. Interesting concept. I would suggest adding the following criteria:

    3) At least half of agent's total listings sold were sold for over list.
    4) At least 25 percent of the agent's listings sell in under 7 days.

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  2. Maybe I could have a bigger flag depending on the increase likelihood.

    I would think #3 might be too tough...
    #4 might work.

    The thought was to be consistent with the FPP model which is "IF this home sold today, what would it sell for". Not "what I think this home will sell for eventually."

    So a new listing might be $20k overpriced, but IF it sold today... this agent will likely still get list or over list.

    But it is something to consider!

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  3. What about having more than one flame to express greater confidence in the outcome, much like they do with stats?
    What about a different symbol? Flames and houses not so fun. $ much more fun :)
    What about symbols for agents too?

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  4. ha! houses and flames don't mix.
    but a $ sign is too similar to all the $500k type symbols.
    maybe a shooting star or different sized flames.

    or guns for war.

    Frank Via cell

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  5. Flame should be based on the building, its location, and historics of the building or neibhourhood and not based on agent's metric.

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  6. How about a 'bidding paddle' as the icon.

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  7. PK, a paddle might be a great idea... Like an auction. I wouldn't want people to be confused thinking it was an auction, but this might work.

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  8. Anonymous, I hear you. Putting a flame if a particular area is hot. But I have found, even hot areas and overprice homes bgy 10-20% and not sell... so it might be too tough to then try and pick the properly priced homes in hot areas. I could use zestimates or tax assessment, but that is too inaccurate. I find that the listing agents have patterns. Some overprice, some underprice or price well and get multiple offer.

    But thanks for your suggestion, I will think about how I might implement that.

    ReplyDelete