Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Predict Bidding War Situations. The New Fire Symbol!

With all the bidding wars going on, wouldn't it be nice to know when a listing might be more likely to have a bidding war situation?

See an example with a search in Arlington Virginia homes for sale.

Well now, we will show a    symbol when there is a listing that meets the following criteria

1) The homes is under 7 Days On Market
2) The listing agent has a selling track record of getting the seller over 100% of list price on at least HALF of their listings... that sell in 7 days.

The #2 is a little tricky, so I will explain it another way. The flame is just looking at the agent's track record when their listings sell in under 7 days. So they might have 100 listings and only 3 sell in under 7 days. Meaning only a 3% chance of a bidding war. And if 2 of those 3 (over 50%) sell for over list, there WILL be a flame symbol.

So the flame represents IF (a big IF) this home were to sell in under 7 days, it has over a 50% chance of selling for over list price based on the agent's track record.

I am open to suggestions for adjusting this metric, but for now I kept it simple. 

What do you think? Leave your comments.
Also the FPP (Frankly Price Predictor) will have an adjustment shortly for homes likely to go over list.



  1. Interesting concept. I would suggest adding the following criteria:

    3) At least half of agent's total listings sold were sold for over list.
    4) At least 25 percent of the agent's listings sell in under 7 days.

  2. Maybe I could have a bigger flag depending on the increase likelihood.

    I would think #3 might be too tough...
    #4 might work.

    The thought was to be consistent with the FPP model which is "IF this home sold today, what would it sell for". Not "what I think this home will sell for eventually."

    So a new listing might be $20k overpriced, but IF it sold today... this agent will likely still get list or over list.

    But it is something to consider!

  3. What about having more than one flame to express greater confidence in the outcome, much like they do with stats?
    What about a different symbol? Flames and houses not so fun. $ much more fun :)
    What about symbols for agents too?

  4. ha! houses and flames don't mix.
    but a $ sign is too similar to all the $500k type symbols.
    maybe a shooting star or different sized flames.

    or guns for war.

    Frank Via cell

  5. Flame should be based on the building, its location, and historics of the building or neibhourhood and not based on agent's metric.

  6. How about a 'bidding paddle' as the icon.

  7. PK, a paddle might be a great idea... Like an auction. I wouldn't want people to be confused thinking it was an auction, but this might work.

  8. Anonymous, I hear you. Putting a flame if a particular area is hot. But I have found, even hot areas and overprice homes bgy 10-20% and not sell... so it might be too tough to then try and pick the properly priced homes in hot areas. I could use zestimates or tax assessment, but that is too inaccurate. I find that the listing agents have patterns. Some overprice, some underprice or price well and get multiple offer.

    But thanks for your suggestion, I will think about how I might implement that.